Neurobiological studies of risk assessment: A comparison of expected utility and mean-variance approaches

When modeling valuation under uncertainty, economists generally prefer expected utility because it has an axiomatic foundation, meaning that the resulting choices will satisfy a number of rationality requirements. In expected utility theory, values are computed by multiplying probabilities of each possible state of nature by the payoff in that state and summing the results. The drawback of this approach is that all state probabilities need to be dealt with separately, which becomes extremely cumbersome when it comes to learning. Finance academics and professionals, however, prefer to value risky prospects in terms of a trade-off between expected reward and risk, where the latter is usually measured in terms of reward variance. This mean-variance approach is fast and simple and greatly facilitates learning, but it impedes assigning values to new gambles on the basis of those of known ones. To date, it is unclear whether the human brain computes values in accordance with expected utility theory or with mean-variance analysis. In this article, we discuss the theoretical and empirical arguments that favor one or the other theory. We also propose a new experimental paradigm that could determine whether the human brain follows the expected utility or the mean-variance approach. Behavioral results of implementation of the paradigm are discussed

Reduction of anti-malarial consumption after rapid diagnostic tests implementation in Dar es Salaam: a before-after and cluster randomized controlled study

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Presumptive treatment of all febrile patients with anti-malarials leads to massive over-treatment. The aim was to assess the effect of implementing malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) on prescription of anti-malarials in urban Tanzania. METHODS: The design was a prospective collection of routine statistics from ledger books and cross-sectional surveys before and after intervention in randomly selected health facilities (HF) in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The participants were all clinicians and their patients in the above health facilities. The intervention consisted of training and introduction of mRDTs in all three hospitals and in six HF. Three HF without mRDTs were selected as matched controls. The use of routine mRDT and treatment upon result was advised for all patients complaining of fever, including children under five years of age. The main outcome measures were: (1) anti-malarial consumption recorded from routine statistics in ledger books of all HF before and after intervention; (2) anti-malarial prescription recorded during observed consultations in cross-sectional surveys conducted in all HF before and 18 months after mRDT implementation. RESULTS: Based on routine statistics, the amount of artemether-lumefantrine blisters used post-intervention was reduced by 68% (95%CI 57-80) in intervention and 32% (9-54) in control HF. For quinine vials, the reduction was 63% (54-72) in intervention and an increase of 2.49 times (1.62-3.35) in control HF. Before-and-after cross-sectional surveys showed a similar decrease from 75% to 20% in the proportion of patients receiving anti-malarial treatment (Risk ratio 0.23, 95%CI 0.20-0.26). The cluster randomized analysis showed a considerable difference of anti-malarial prescription between intervention HF (22%) and control HF (60%) (Risk ratio 0.30, 95%CI 0.14-0.70). Adherence to test result was excellent since only 7% of negative patients received an anti-malarial. However, antibiotic prescription increased from 49% before to 72% after intervention (Risk ratio 1.47, 95%CI 1.37-1.59). CONCLUSIONS: Programmatic implementation of mRDTs in a moderately endemic area reduced drastically over-treatment with anti-malarials. Properly trained clinicians with adequate support complied with the recommendation of not treating patients with negative results. Implementation of mRDT should be integrated hand-in-hand with training on the management of other causes of fever to prevent irrational use of antibiotic

Predictive value of clinical and laboratory features for the main febrile diseases in children living in Tanzania: A prospective observational study.

To construct evidence-based guidelines for management of febrile illness, it is essential to identify clinical predictors for the main causes of fever, either to diagnose the disease when no laboratory test is available or to better target testing when a test is available. The objective was to investigate clinical predictors of several diseases in a cohort of febrile children attending outpatient clinics in Tanzania, whose diagnoses have been established after extensive clinical and laboratory workup. From April to December 2008, 1005 consecutive children aged 2 months to 10 years with temperature ≥38°C attending two outpatient clinics in Dar es Salaam were included. Demographic characteristics, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, full blood count and liver enzyme level were investigated by bi- and multi-variate analyses (Chan, et al., 2008). To evaluate accuracy of combined predictors to construct algorithms, classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were also performed. 62 variables were studied. Between 4 and 15 significant predictors to rule in (aLR+>1) or rule out (aLR+<1) the disease were found in the multivariate analysis for the 7 more frequent outcomes. For malaria, the strongest predictor was temperature ≥40°C (aLR+8.4, 95%CI 4.7-15), for typhoid abdominal tenderness (5.9,2.5-11), for urinary tract infection (UTI) age ≥3 years (0.20,0-0.50), for radiological pneumonia abnormal chest auscultation (4.3,2.8-6.1), for acute HHV6 infection dehydration (0.18,0-0.75), for bacterial disease (any type) chest indrawing (19,8.2-60) and for viral disease (any type) jaundice (0.28,0.16-0.41). Other clinically relevant and easy to assess predictors were also found: malaria could be ruled in by recent travel, typhoid by jaundice, radiological pneumonia by very fast breathing and UTI by fever duration of ≥4 days. The CART model for malaria included temperature, travel, jaundice and hepatomegaly (sensitivity 80%, specificity 64%); typhoid: age ≥2 years, jaundice, abdominal tenderness and adenopathy (46%,93%); UTI: age <2 years, temperature ≥40°C, low weight and pale nails (20%,96%); radiological pneumonia: very fast breathing, chest indrawing and leukocytosis (38%,97%); acute HHV6 infection: less than 2 years old, (no) dehydration, (no) jaundice and (no) rash (86%,51%); bacterial disease: chest indrawing, chronic condition, temperature ≥39.7°c and fever duration >3 days (45%,83%); viral disease: runny nose, cough and age <2 years (68%,76%). A better understanding of the relative performance of these predictors might be of great help for clinicians to be able to better decide when to test, treat, refer or simply observe a sick child, in order to decrease morbidity and mortality, but also to avoid unnecessary antimicrobial prescription. These predictors have been used to construct a new algorithm for the management of childhood illnesses called ALMANACH

Biomarkers of Host Response Predict Primary End-Point Radiological Pneumonia in Tanzanian Children with Clinical Pneumonia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing pediatric pneumonia is challenging in low-resource settings. The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined primary end-point radiological pneumonia for use in epidemiological and vaccine studies. However, radiography requires expertise and is often inaccessible. We hypothesized that plasma biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation may be useful surrogates for end-point pneumonia, and may provide insight into its biological significance. METHODS: We studied children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia (n = 155) within a prospective cohort of 1,005 consecutive febrile children presenting to Tanzanian outpatient clinics. Based on x-ray findings, participants were categorized as primary end-point pneumonia (n = 30), other infiltrates (n = 31), or normal chest x-ray (n = 94). Plasma levels of 7 host response biomarkers at presentation were measured by ELISA. Associations between biomarker levels and radiological findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis test and multivariable logistic regression. Biomarker ability to predict radiological findings was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Classification and Regression Tree analysis. RESULTS: Compared to children with normal x-ray, children with end-point pneumonia had significantly higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and Chitinase 3-like-1, while those with other infiltrates had elevated procalcitonin and von Willebrand Factor and decreased soluble Tie-2 and endoglin. Clinical variables were not predictive of radiological findings. Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated multi-marker models with improved performance over single markers for discriminating between groups. A model based on C-reactive protein and Chitinase 3-like-1 discriminated between end-point pneumonia and non-end-point pneumonia with 93.3% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 76.5-98.8), 80.8% specificity (72.6-87.1), positive likelihood ratio 4.9 (3.4-7.1), negative likelihood ratio 0.083 (0.022-0.32), and misclassification rate 0.20 (standard error 0.038). CONCLUSIONS: In Tanzanian children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia, combinations of host biomarkers distinguished between end-point pneumonia, other infiltrates, and normal chest x-ray, whereas clinical variables did not. These findings generate pathophysiological hypotheses and may have potential research and clinical utility

Beyond malaria--causes of fever in outpatient Tanzanian children.

BACKGROUND: As the incidence of malaria diminishes, a better understanding of nonmalarial fever is important for effective management of illness in children. In this study, we explored the spectrum of causes of fever in African children. METHODS: We recruited children younger than 10 years of age with a temperature of 38°C or higher at two outpatient clinics--one rural and one urban--in Tanzania. Medical histories were obtained and clinical examinations conducted by means of systematic procedures. Blood and nasopharyngeal specimens were collected to perform rapid diagnostic tests, serologic tests, culture, and molecular tests for potential pathogens causing acute fever. Final diagnoses were determined with the use of algorithms and a set of prespecified criteria. RESULTS: Analyses of data derived from clinical presentation and from 25,743 laboratory investigations yielded 1232 diagnoses. Of 1005 children (22.6% of whom had multiple diagnoses), 62.2% had an acute respiratory infection; 5.0% of these infections were radiologically confirmed pneumonia. A systemic bacterial, viral, or parasitic infection other than malaria or typhoid fever was found in 13.3% of children, nasopharyngeal viral infection (without respiratory symptoms or signs) in 11.9%, malaria in 10.5%, gastroenteritis in 10.3%, urinary tract infection in 5.9%, typhoid fever in 3.7%, skin or mucosal infection in 1.5%, and meningitis in 0.2%. The cause of fever was undetermined in 3.2% of the children. A total of 70.5% of the children had viral disease, 22.0% had bacterial disease, and 10.9% had parasitic disease. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide a description of the numerous causes of fever in African children in two representative settings. Evidence of a viral process was found more commonly than evidence of a bacterial or parasitic process. (Funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation and others.)

Oblique basin inversion and strain partitioning in back-arc context: example from the Moroccan Alboran Margin (Western Mediterranean)

EUROPEAN GEOPHYSICAL UNIO

Plio-Quaternary tectonic evolution of the southern margin of the Alboran Basin (Western Mediterranean)

We thank the members of the SARAS and Marlboro cruises in 2011 and 2012. We thank Emanuele Lodolo, Jacques Déverchère, Guillermo Booth-Rea for their helpful comments and discussion. We also thank the editor, Federico Rossetti, for the attention provided to this article. This work was funded by the French program Actions Marges, the EUROFLEETS program (FP7/2007-2013; no. 228344) and project FICTS-2011-03-01. The French program ANR-17-CE03-0004 also supported this work. Seismic reflection data were processed using the Seismic UNIX SU and Geovecteur software. The processed seismic data were interpreted using Kingdom IHS Suite© software. This work also benefited from the Fauces Project (Ref CTM2015-65461-C2-R; MINCIU/FEDER) financed by Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad y al Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regiona (FEDER).Progress in the understanding and dating of the sedimentary record of the Alboran Basin allows us to propose a model of its tectonic evolution since the Pliocene. After a period of extension, the Alboran Basin underwent a progressive tectonic inversion starting around 9–7.5 Ma. The Alboran Ridge is a NE–SW transpressive structure accommodating the shortening in the basin. We mapped its southwestern termination, a Pliocene rhombic structure exhibiting series of folds and thrusts. The active Al-Idrissi Fault zone (AIF) is a Pleistocene strike-slip structure trending NNE– SSW. The AIF crosses the Alboran Ridge and connects to the transtensive Nekor Basin and the Nekor Fault to the south. In the Moroccan shelf and at the edge of a submerged volcano we dated the inception of the local subsidence at 1.81– 1.12 Ma. The subsidence marks the propagation of the AIF toward the Nekor Basin. Pliocene thrusts and folds and Quaternary transtension appear at first sight to act at different tectonic periods but reflect the long-term evolution of a transpressive system. Despite the constant direction of Africa– Eurasia convergence since 6 Ma, along the southern margin of the Alboran Basin, the Pliocene–Quaternary compression evolves from transpressive to transtensive along the AIF and the Nekor Basin. This system reflects the logical evolution of the deformation of the Alboran Basin under the indentation of the African lithosphere.This research has been supported by the CNRSINSU-TOTAL-BRGM-IFREMER Actions Marges program, EUROFLEETS program FP7/2007-2013 (grant no. 228344), EU Regional Structural Fund (grant no. FICTS-2011-03-01) and DAMAGE Project (project no. FEDER/CGL2016-80687-R AEI), Fauces Project (project no. FEDER/CTM2015-65461-C2-R; MINCI), ALBAMAR Project (project no. ANR/ANR-17-CE03-0004)

Changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike versus Nucleoprotein Antibody Responses Impact the Estimates of Infections in Population-Based Seroprevalence Studies.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-specific antibody responses to the spike (S) protein monomer, S protein native trimeric form, or the nucleocapsid (N) proteins were evaluated in cohorts of individuals with acute infection (n = 93) and in individuals enrolled in a postinfection seroprevalence population study (n = 578) in Switzerland. Commercial assays specific for the S1 monomer, for the N protein, or within a newly developed Luminex assay using the S protein trimer were found to be equally sensitive in antibody detection in the acute-infection-phase samples. Interestingly, compared to anti-S antibody responses, those against the N protein appear to wane in the postinfection cohort. Seroprevalence in a "positive patient contacts" group (n = 177) was underestimated by N protein assays by 10.9 to 32.2%, while the "randomly selected" general population group (n = 311) was reduced by up to 45% relative to the S protein assays. The overall reduction in seroprevalence targeting only anti-N antibodies for the total cohort ranged from 9.4 to 31%. Of note, the use of the S protein in its native trimer form was significantly more sensitive compared to monomeric S proteins. These results indicate that the assessment of anti-S IgG antibody responses against the native trimeric S protein should be implemented to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infections in population-based seroprevalence studies.IMPORTANCE In the present study, we have determined SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody responses in sera of acute and postinfection phase subjects. Our results indicate that antibody responses against viral S and N proteins were equally sensitive in the acute phase of infection, but that responses against N appear to wane in the postinfection phase where those against the S protein persist over time. The most sensitive serological assay in both acute and postinfection phases used the native S protein trimer as the binding antigen, which has significantly greater conformational epitopes for antibody binding compared to the S1 monomer protein used in other assays. We believe these results are extremely important in order to generate correct estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the general population. Furthermore, the assessment of antibody responses against the trimeric S protein will be critical to evaluate the durability of the antibody response and for the characterization of a vaccine-induced antibody response